■■ 정규재 뉴스) 2016-0323-수◀

■■ 정규재 뉴스) 2016-0323-수

홈피 : http://jkjtv.hankyung.com/bbs.frm.view/jkjtv_freeboard?no=3451

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강봉균 (1943년) - 위키백과, 우리 모두의 백과사전

사회적 경제 기본법

兎死狗烹

http://hanja.naver.com/word?q=%E5%85%8E%E6%AD%BB%E7%8B%97%E7%83%B9

벨기에와 이슬람  /  권영설

http://www.hankyung.com/news/app/newsview.php?aid=2016032320051

네덜란드 룩셈부르크와 함께 베네룩스 3국으로 불리는 벨기에는 경상도만 한 크기의 작은 나라다. 200여종이나 되는 맥주, 세계적인 맛을 자랑하는 초콜릿이 유명하다. 화가 루벤스의 조국이고 만화 스머프가 태어난 곳이기도 하다. 오줌싸개 동상이 있는 수도 브뤼셀은 1993년 출범한 유럽연합(EU) 본부가 있는 곳이다. 인구 1120만명에 1인당 GDP가 4만6877달러(2013년)나 되는 선진국이다. 

프랑스, 독일과 국경이 닿아 있고 영국과는 대서양을 사이에 두고 마주보고 있는 지정학적 위치 때문에 수많은 외침에 시달렸다. 특히 1, 2차대전 때는 독일군에 완전히 점령되는 최대 피해지였다. 

며칠 전 브뤼셀공항과 지하철역에서 200여명의 사상자를 낸 폭탄테러가 발생하면서 어떻게 이런 선진국이 테러리스트 소굴이 됐는지에 관심이 집중되고 있다. 그 원인은 행정 불안에 있다. 벨기에는 작은 나라지만 지역과 언어가 나눠져 갈등이 심하다.

북쪽 플랑드르 지역에 사는 ‘플라밍’들은 전 국민의 57%로 네덜란드어를 쓴다. 남쪽 왈로니아지역에 사는 ‘왈롱’은 인구의 32% 정도인데 프랑스어를 사용한다. 1%밖에 안 되지만 독일어를 공용어로 쓰는 지역도 있다. 지방 정부가 워낙 강해 1993년 출범한 연방정부가 힘을 못 쓰고 있다. 2010~2011년엔 541일간 장관들이 없는 ‘무내각’ 상태가 된 적도 있다. 

지방정부가 강력하다 보니 경찰도 6개 행정조직마다 다른 시스템으로 운영되고 있다. 행정이나 치안은 불안한데도 도시는 국제적인 개방도시다. 테러리스트들이 언제든 열차를 타고 유럽 어느 곳이든 도주할 수 있다. 벨기에는 특히 밀항도 비교적 쉬어 불법 난민, 이민자들이 더욱 몰려들고 있다. 테러리스트들이 암약하기에 좋은 환경이 된 것이다. 

벨기에는 2차대전 이후 이슬람 이민자를 많이 받아들여 현재 이슬람 인구가 50만명이다. 브뤼셀 인근의 몰렌베이크는 인구 10만명 가운데 3만명이 무슬림이다. ‘유럽 내 이슬람의 정치적 수도’라고까지 불린다. 파리 테러 등의 주범들이 모두 이 도시 출신이다. 몰렌베이크의 실업률은 벨기에 평균(9%)에 비해 3배가 넘는 30%에 달한다. 

결국 이민자들에 대한 정책 실패가 ‘외로운 늑대들’을 자라게 한 것이다. 여기에 이슬람 이민자들에 대한 차별은 심한 편이다. 벨기에가 서유럽에서 IS 등 극단주의 무장단체에 가입한 사람이 가장 많은 나라가 된 데는 이런 이유가 있다. 

Trumpism, the Economic Wrecking Ball

http://www.wsj.com/articles/trumpism-the-economic-wrecking-ball-1458601778

Exploding deficits, high tariffs and the deportation of millions of workers would spark a global depression.

By Alan S. Blinder 

March 21, 2016 7:09 p.m. ET 

For much of the past six months, I’ve tried to ignore the political ascent of  Donald Trump. Too horrible to be true, I assured myself. But the unthinkable has happened, and Mr. Trump is now the likely nominee of the Republican Party. So what might a Trump presidency bring?

To be frank, the most horrifying aspects of Trumpism are not his economic policies. The worst he could do there would be to precipitate a global depression. It’s far scarier to contemplate an erratic, blustering demagogue taking command of the most powerful military force on earth. Or the foreign-policy calamities that might befall us.

But I’m an economist, so I’ll stick with economics.

Let’s start on familiar terrain: large tax cuts for the rich. Some variant of that theme has been a staple of Republican economic policy since  Ronald Reagan. The evidence that “trickle down” doesn’t work began as a trickle but is now a flood. Never mind, the donor class wants it. So Mr. Trump has stood shoulder-to-shoulder with other Republican candidates in advocating tax cuts for the non-needy.

But Mr. Trump’s proposed tax cuts, naturally, have to be bigger. According to the Tax Policy Center, the 10-year net revenue loss from Mr. Trump’s proposals would be an astonishing $9.5 trillion?and that’s after netting out some $2 trillion in loophole-closers and other tax hikes that probably would never happen. The corresponding net revenue loss in  Ted Cruz’s tax plan is $8.6 trillion. In case you can’t wrap your mind around numbers that large, $9.5 trillion is about 20% of all federal revenue projected for that decade.

Huge tax cuts would balloon the federal budget deficit, just as they did after the Reagan and Bush tax cuts. Yet Republicans decry even today’s comparatively small deficit. How does candidate Trump propose to square the circle? Well, we got an inkling in the March 3 debate, when he proposed to squeeze “hundreds of billions of dollars in waste” from a Medicare drug budget of $78 billion.

Next come Mr. Trump’s anti-immigration promises. First the candidate boasted that he could build a wall on the Mexican border for $8 billion; he has since upped it to $10 billion and cut the length of the wall in half. Did someone say “cost overruns?” Who cares? Mexico will pay, right? Wrong.

Second, has anyone told Mr. Trump that more Mexicans are going home than are coming here these days? So do we?does he?want to wall them in? 

The wall is not the worst Trump immigration idea. Try to imagine the economic disruption and gigantic cost (not to mention the human tragedies) from rounding up 3% of the U.S. population (the undoc-umented) and deporting them. Who, by the way, will do the work when they’re gone?

But I have saved the worst for last: international trade. In TrumpWorld, America “loses” whenever we run a trade deficit. Really? Don’t Americans get goods and services at lower cost while our trading partners get pieces of paper like Treasury bills (our IOUs)? No one forces Americans to buy all those imports. Don’t voluntary exchanges benefit both parties to a transaction? Billionaires wouldn’t notice the higher prices at  Wal-Mart,  Costco  and elsewhere, but middle-class Americans would.

If a trade deficit “costs American jobs,” how did the U.S. manage to have 4% unemployment in 2000 when the trade deficit was 3.7% of GDP?larger than today’s?

And remember, all the trade deficits and surpluses in the world must add up to zero. So if all trade deficits must disappear, so must all trade surpluses?which, in practice, would mean that international trade shrivels. We tried that approach in 1930 with the Smoot-Hawley tariffs. It didn’t work out too well.

Finally, let’s not forget that America is signatory to numerous international treaties. Mr. Trump says he’ll “break” the North American Free Trade Agreement if he can’t renegotiate it. Has he asked Canada or Mexico? Mr. Trump has also advocated 45% tariffs on Chinese imports. Has he heard of the World Trade Organization agreement? It goes on. And the costs of abrogating treaties transcend economics. What country wants to deal with a serial treaty breaker?

Let’s tote up the score. Mr. Trump’s tax plan is doable, if Congress is sufficiently pliant. But it would exacerbate income inequality and explode the federal deficit. Mr. Trump’s immigration plans are heartless, hugely expensive and incredibly disruptive to the U.S. economy. His positions on international trade display abysmal ignorance, are economically harmful and threaten America’s standing in the world.

And remember: These are the best parts of what Mr. Trump has to offer.

Mr. Blinder, a professor of economics and public affairs at Princeton University and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, is an informal policy adviser to the  Hillary Clinton campaign. 

청와대에까지 이른 북한의 위협, 비상한 경계 필요하다

http://www.hankyung.com/news/app/newsview.php?aid=2016032320021

北 "박근혜 패당 제거 위한 보복전" 위협

…조평통 중대보도

http://www.chogabje.com/board/view.asp?C_IDX=65949&C_CC=AZ

"우리의 보복전은 청와대 안에서 시작될수도 있고 청와대 가까이에서도 전개 될 수 있다는 것을 숨기지 않는다"

international mobility   ,  A brief history of human time

http://www.voxeu.org/article/brief-history-human-time

체감실업률

https://www.google.com/search?q=%22%EC%B2%B4%EA%B0%90%EC%8B%A4%EC%97%85%EB%A5%A0%22&lr&newwindow=1&as_qdr=all&tbm=isch&imgil=0YRPi0TW6xcwzM%253A%253BCIh-qXbKvPa9HM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.fwwu.org%25252Fbbs%25252Fsub5_3%25252F3171&source=iu&pf=m&fir=0YRPi0TW6xcwzM%253A%252CCIh-qXbKvPa9HM%252C_&usg=__tpX3rn6q8DhkQj66sMhCU9FemvM%3D&biw=1680&bih=989&ved=0ahUKEwjMqvChztbLAhXC56YKHZGTCXYQyjcILA&ei=fXHyVoz4KcLPmwWRp6awBw#imgrc=_

기초생활수급자

https://www.google.com/search?as_q=&as_epq=%EA%B8%B0%EC%B4%88%EC%83%9D%ED%99%9C%EC%88%98%EA%B8%89%EC%9E%90&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=

카카오/셀트리온 , 대기업

https://news.google.com/news/story?ncl=dTIBGVNryMUDh5MX3MX7SJB3pS0yM&q=%EB%8C%80%EA%B8%B0%EC%97%85+5%EC%A1%B0&lr=Korean&hl=ko&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiskLbwz9bLAhUBQ5QKHT_3AJUQqgIIKDAA

https://news.google.com/news/story?ncl=dMUVIrBk-jTTtYMrEHn2-5nqq0P0M&q=%EB%8C%80%EA%B8%B0%EC%97%85+5%EC%A1%B0&lr=Korean&hl=ko&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiskLbwz9bLAhUBQ5QKHT_3AJUQqgIIMzAB

사외이사 변호사 자기규제

https://www.google.com/search?as_q=%EC%82%AC%EC%99%B8%EC%9D%B4%EC%82%AC+%EB%B3%80%ED%98%B8%EC%82%AC+%EC%9E%90%EA%B8%B0%EA%B7%9C%EC%A0%9C&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=

[사설] 더민주, 김종인 대표 앞세워 국민 속였다

http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2016/03/22/2016032203097.html

영화 , 그랜 토리노

http://movie.naver.com/movie/bi/mi/basic.nhn?code=51462

말뫼의 눈물

https://www.google.com/search?as_q=%EB%A7%90%EB%AB%BC%EC%9D%98+%EB%88%88%EB%AC%BC&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=

트위지

https://www.google.com/search?as_q=%ED%8A%B8%EC%9C%84%EC%A7%80&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=

브뤼셀

https://www.google.co.kr/maps/@50.838679,4.3561938,12z?hl=ko

강남좌파 이혜훈

https://www.google.com/search?as_q=%EA%B0%95%EB%82%A8%EC%A2%8C%ED%8C%8C+%EC%9D%B4%ED%98%9C%ED%9B%88&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=

남경필 원희룡 이혜훈 유승민 운동권

https://www.google.com/search?as_q=%EB%82%A8%EA%B2%BD%ED%95%84+%EC%9B%90%ED%9D%AC%EB%A3%A1+%EC%9D%B4%ED%98%9C%ED%9B%88+%EC%9C%A0%EC%8A%B9%EB%AF%BC+%EC%9A%B4%EB%8F%99%EA%B6%8C&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=

남경필 원희룡 이혜훈 유승민

https://www.google.com/search?as_q=%EB%82%A8%EA%B2%BD%ED%95%84+%EC%9B%90%ED%9D%AC%EB%A3%A1+%EC%9D%B4%ED%98%9C%ED%9B%88+%EC%9C%A0%EC%8A%B9%EB%AF%BC+&as_epq=&as_oq=&as_eq=&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&lr=&cr=&as_qdr=all&as_sitesearch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&as_rights=